.........Getting in the way!
Just a very quick post. Against his better judgement RT got roped and press ganged into a bit overtime!
Back on track tomorrow!
RT
Friday, 20 January 2012
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Beware! There are sharks............
......................BIG SHARKS and they are patrolling these 'trading' waters.
We have in a roundabout sort of way 'talked' a little on the way we could develop as traders, by mixing together a bit of basic market understanding, a touch of emotional control, a splash of self discipline via our trade plan and finally a good old handful of selfishness! Selfishness, yes selfishness. I'll explain, I am no blind follower of anything or anyone but, Ayn Rands The virtues of selfishness made, in part, a small impression on me. Lets take the dictionary definition of selfishness which is: Concern for one's own interests, nothing more. This sentence alone was worth the price of the book because, as is my want I took little else from it.
When we are trading we should have little else on our minds other than acting in our own interests.
Here is 76 pence worth of selfishness!
As always, take as you wish!
RT
We have in a roundabout sort of way 'talked' a little on the way we could develop as traders, by mixing together a bit of basic market understanding, a touch of emotional control, a splash of self discipline via our trade plan and finally a good old handful of selfishness! Selfishness, yes selfishness. I'll explain, I am no blind follower of anything or anyone but, Ayn Rands The virtues of selfishness made, in part, a small impression on me. Lets take the dictionary definition of selfishness which is: Concern for one's own interests, nothing more. This sentence alone was worth the price of the book because, as is my want I took little else from it.
When we are trading we should have little else on our minds other than acting in our own interests.
Here is 76 pence worth of selfishness!
As always, take as you wish!
RT
Tuesday, 17 January 2012
Of reading material, strategies and three pence profit!
Yes three whole pence, and I get to keep it.
Trading has been quiet to say the least. I am still mildly annoyed with our 'friends' over at betfair, but I do realise to operate as a sports trader I need betfair more than they need me! The harsh reality. So sometime soon I will be back on track, my 'mind' is certainly not idle.
The three pence profit can from playing around with a few things during last nights Wigan-Man city game on BETDAQ, do you have a BETDAQ account yet? It may be worth your while considering one, if only as risk control measure, somewhere to offset any liabilities if betfair goes tits up again! There is a link below.
Some of the better trading STRATEGIES are the ones we develop ourselves, I find, especially when we have observed and experienced a particular market, for a period of time longer enough to able to predict the odds movement with some confidence and accuracy. Such a market might be the football over and unders. We can also, most importantly, see what effect a goal will have on those odds movements. Then build into our thinking, then into our trade plan what we will do when the goal is scored. Do we want to avoid the goal or take advantage of the goal? What would we do if we get caught with an open trade and the resultant odds movement is against us? These are some questions RT thinks we should be asking ourselves when devising strategies.
If I were to recommend books to read on trading, two spring to mind immediately:
1. How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas. What is it about this book that makes it so special? I just like the way he conquered his emotions and developed a methodology that suited him and his life style, then traded his methodology with discipline. I think its necessary to read between the lines but the overall message is there loud and clear. He describes how he identifies and isolates what it was he was doing wrong then, he sets out to put it right, in grand style!
2. Game, Set and Matched by Iain Fletcher.Written in 2004, this book describes the authors year long spell trading betfair as a professional, it is a mixture of trading and straight punting but very entertaining and enjoyable non the less. A great read and still available I believe.
The strategy in tonights football QPR - MK Dons was to wait for a goal, a QPR goal then trade and scalp to full time.
Catch you later
RT
Trading has been quiet to say the least. I am still mildly annoyed with our 'friends' over at betfair, but I do realise to operate as a sports trader I need betfair more than they need me! The harsh reality. So sometime soon I will be back on track, my 'mind' is certainly not idle.
The three pence profit can from playing around with a few things during last nights Wigan-Man city game on BETDAQ, do you have a BETDAQ account yet? It may be worth your while considering one, if only as risk control measure, somewhere to offset any liabilities if betfair goes tits up again! There is a link below.
Some of the better trading STRATEGIES are the ones we develop ourselves, I find, especially when we have observed and experienced a particular market, for a period of time longer enough to able to predict the odds movement with some confidence and accuracy. Such a market might be the football over and unders. We can also, most importantly, see what effect a goal will have on those odds movements. Then build into our thinking, then into our trade plan what we will do when the goal is scored. Do we want to avoid the goal or take advantage of the goal? What would we do if we get caught with an open trade and the resultant odds movement is against us? These are some questions RT thinks we should be asking ourselves when devising strategies.
If I were to recommend books to read on trading, two spring to mind immediately:
1. How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas. What is it about this book that makes it so special? I just like the way he conquered his emotions and developed a methodology that suited him and his life style, then traded his methodology with discipline. I think its necessary to read between the lines but the overall message is there loud and clear. He describes how he identifies and isolates what it was he was doing wrong then, he sets out to put it right, in grand style!
2. Game, Set and Matched by Iain Fletcher.Written in 2004, this book describes the authors year long spell trading betfair as a professional, it is a mixture of trading and straight punting but very entertaining and enjoyable non the less. A great read and still available I believe.
The strategy in tonights football QPR - MK Dons was to wait for a goal, a QPR goal then trade and scalp to full time.
Catch you later
RT
Borrowed wisdom.....handle with care!
It was Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 'Fooled by Randomness' who expressed the opinion , 'Beware of borrowed wisdom'.
Well I'd like to borrow a slice of Mr Talebs wisdom and its with regard to Russian Roulette of all things. He was using the 'game' of Russian Roulette to describe the approach of some traders to the markets, that is they were taking large risks and were, with the aid of lady luck, getting away with it! To put it another way, they had, so far, managed to avoid the chamber containing the single bullet but, and it is a massive BUT, the nature of the game means the player cannot totally avoid the bullet! The odds are 1 out of 6 or 5/1.
The trading equivalent of finding the bullet is a large account draw down.
Now I would liken Russian Roulette to letting an open trade go in play when trading horse racing pre-race.
In fact just saying to ourselves 'Russian Roulette' might be trigger or action word to snap us back to reality, and close out for a red or green!
Let RT put another 'slant' on this issue, I mentioned the odds earlier, 1 out of 6 or a 5/1 chance of finding the bullet, perhaps the more cautious might make the odds even money or a 1/1 chance because the next chamber is the crucial one and it either contains a bullet or it does not!
As always, take from this what you will......
RT
Well I'd like to borrow a slice of Mr Talebs wisdom and its with regard to Russian Roulette of all things. He was using the 'game' of Russian Roulette to describe the approach of some traders to the markets, that is they were taking large risks and were, with the aid of lady luck, getting away with it! To put it another way, they had, so far, managed to avoid the chamber containing the single bullet but, and it is a massive BUT, the nature of the game means the player cannot totally avoid the bullet! The odds are 1 out of 6 or 5/1.
The trading equivalent of finding the bullet is a large account draw down.
Now I would liken Russian Roulette to letting an open trade go in play when trading horse racing pre-race.
In fact just saying to ourselves 'Russian Roulette' might be trigger or action word to snap us back to reality, and close out for a red or green!
Let RT put another 'slant' on this issue, I mentioned the odds earlier, 1 out of 6 or a 5/1 chance of finding the bullet, perhaps the more cautious might make the odds even money or a 1/1 chance because the next chamber is the crucial one and it either contains a bullet or it does not!
As always, take from this what you will......
RT
Monday, 16 January 2012
First find a very solid brick wall, then............
........Proceed to BANG your head against it!..............Once.
RT received a reply back from betfair today regarding their site failure on Friday. Need I go on...? Of course not.
Sorry, Was the answer. I suppose it was what I was expecting really, I felt I had to try, but I suppose if I had profited from the crash things would have been different. Human nature.
Are you superstitious or a Knight Templar? I wonder what the probability was of that event happening as it did on Friday the 13th and has it altered your risk management in anyway?
Is the really important question, 'What is the probability of it happening AGAIN?
RT
RT received a reply back from betfair today regarding their site failure on Friday. Need I go on...? Of course not.
Sorry, Was the answer. I suppose it was what I was expecting really, I felt I had to try, but I suppose if I had profited from the crash things would have been different. Human nature.
Are you superstitious or a Knight Templar? I wonder what the probability was of that event happening as it did on Friday the 13th and has it altered your risk management in anyway?
Is the really important question, 'What is the probability of it happening AGAIN?
RT
Thoughts, ramblings and strike rate!
Not so very long ago, RT was just a little obsessed by STRIKE RATE, the number of successful trades measured against the number of unsuccessful trades or the ratio of profitable trades to losing trades. Well whats wrong with that? Well in RTs opinion, this is a negative trait for a trader to adopt, because it causes us to 'grab' small profits, just to maintain the strike rate, when more was or is available! (From personal experience)
Take two football managers as an example:.......Last three results
Manager A. Draw, loss, draw = 2pts.
Manager B. Win, loss, loss = 3pts.
or
Trader A. £5.00, -£2.00, £5.00 = £8.00
Trader B. £15.00, -£3.00, -£3.00 = £9.00
It is nye on impossible to compare two traders trading mindset, we can only look to our own, but do you see the point I am attempting to make? For manager A or Trader A to achieve the results of Manager B or Trader B they would have to alter their general mindset, their tolerance to risk and rewrite their Trade plan.
This is not a 10 minute, overnight or week long task either, in RTs opinion.
The world, in particularly the trading world is full of opinions, some VERY COSTLY!
The opinion RT is trying give to you is to TAKE YOUR OWN ADVICE, OPEN YOUR EYES AND SEE WHEN LOOKING and FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS!
THE ANSWERS ARE HERE, INSIDE YOUR HEAD!
Food for thought, got to go RTs boss is in need of more than his pound of flesh!
RT
Take two football managers as an example:.......Last three results
Manager A. Draw, loss, draw = 2pts.
Manager B. Win, loss, loss = 3pts.
or
Trader A. £5.00, -£2.00, £5.00 = £8.00
Trader B. £15.00, -£3.00, -£3.00 = £9.00
It is nye on impossible to compare two traders trading mindset, we can only look to our own, but do you see the point I am attempting to make? For manager A or Trader A to achieve the results of Manager B or Trader B they would have to alter their general mindset, their tolerance to risk and rewrite their Trade plan.
This is not a 10 minute, overnight or week long task either, in RTs opinion.
The world, in particularly the trading world is full of opinions, some VERY COSTLY!
The opinion RT is trying give to you is to TAKE YOUR OWN ADVICE, OPEN YOUR EYES AND SEE WHEN LOOKING and FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS!
THE ANSWERS ARE HERE, INSIDE YOUR HEAD!
Food for thought, got to go RTs boss is in need of more than his pound of flesh!
RT
Sunday, 15 January 2012
MONEY LOST?
A question for you.
How do you view or think of losses?
Is it money lost or Is it money invested in our trading education?
Lets just think about that for a while.
................................................................................................................................................................
A few trades on BETDAQ today, I am starting to get a bit of a feel for the low liquidity markets but I do miss the FULL MARKET DEPTH!
Bye for now
RT
P&L £11.75
How do you view or think of losses?
Is it money lost or Is it money invested in our trading education?
Lets just think about that for a while.
................................................................................................................................................................
A few trades on BETDAQ today, I am starting to get a bit of a feel for the low liquidity markets but I do miss the FULL MARKET DEPTH!
Bye for now
RT
P&L £11.75
Do you think.....................
............I was a little unkind yesterday, regarding my.......lets just call them...observations, regarding this link:
http://www.dailyraider.com/index.php?id=12031 ...? Perhaps. The point I am trying to hammer home is that 'life' presents us with a certain number of opportunities............you know the rest. I have worked very hard all my working life in engineering and construction, now the larger proportion of the 'wealth' that I have generated has gone to someone else! Believe it or not I don't have a problem with that, but ......... BUT .......................... ...... THIS SITUATION IS GOING TO CHANGE!
We are all aware of the current economic climate we find ourselves in, during many lunch breaks the conversation usually turns to who is at fault here. The bankers, the government, the EEC, Sepp Blatter, the weatherman and who's to blame for what!. RT is very reluctant to suggest taking the 'trading journey' because of the potential financial damage it possible to inflict on oneself, but I do suggest not going down the blame route. Instead asking ourselves 'what can we do about this situation', the only response was ' The boss wants us to work longer and harder for less' so thats what we will have to do'! Gasp.. OK guys 'Do you have the internet at home'....... yes....... 'Do you realise the potential of it? Its the greatest advance since.....?????? Just 'google' opportunities to make money..... you get ....2,020,000.000 replys, well is worth spending 10 minutes in the evening checking out a few of these replys? I going to the pub, I'm too tired when I get in from work, the dogs not well etc..etc.
So perhaps I was not too unkind...!
The trade plan and entry points: I dont think I was clear enough on this point especially for beginners.
I hope this helps to clarify and get you thinking.
The first conclusion I draw from this market is, it is reasonably stable judging by the trading range of 3.40 to 'about' 3.70 also 3.45 seems to be fairly solid support as the matched money stops abruptly and does not gradually taper down.
Entry point A would seem to be a very 'safe' place to place a lay order, we could just sit and wait.
Entry point B was my entry in this market, as you can see from the chart on the left the market has touched 3.75, turned down and already bounced off 3.55 once, so that was our signal for an entry lay order. Now the thing to focus on is money following our order on top off the £224 waiting to be matched because others will probably be doing and thinking as we are. It is difficult from a screen shot to appreciate the actual price action ticker, we all so some money to 'sit on', the £2970 at 3.50. We have some options now;
1. We could if we are content to take one tick profit, place our counter trade at 3.60 in readyness for our exit. We should also be hovering around 3.55 to either pull the order or scratch by backing at 3.55 then pull our scalp back order at 3.60 if we feel the market is going to push through our order.
2.If we are looking for more than a one tick scalp, we should be looking to our next possible exit point, probably at 3.70. Why 3.70, because the market has already been there previously!
Do not forget to be aware what is happening in the market as a whole by keeping one eye on the market overview.
Got you thinking?.........................Hope so!
Cheers
RT
http://www.dailyraider.com/index.php?id=12031 ...? Perhaps. The point I am trying to hammer home is that 'life' presents us with a certain number of opportunities............you know the rest. I have worked very hard all my working life in engineering and construction, now the larger proportion of the 'wealth' that I have generated has gone to someone else! Believe it or not I don't have a problem with that, but ......... BUT .......................... ...... THIS SITUATION IS GOING TO CHANGE!
We are all aware of the current economic climate we find ourselves in, during many lunch breaks the conversation usually turns to who is at fault here. The bankers, the government, the EEC, Sepp Blatter, the weatherman and who's to blame for what!. RT is very reluctant to suggest taking the 'trading journey' because of the potential financial damage it possible to inflict on oneself, but I do suggest not going down the blame route. Instead asking ourselves 'what can we do about this situation', the only response was ' The boss wants us to work longer and harder for less' so thats what we will have to do'! Gasp.. OK guys 'Do you have the internet at home'....... yes....... 'Do you realise the potential of it? Its the greatest advance since.....?????? Just 'google' opportunities to make money..... you get ....2,020,000.000 replys, well is worth spending 10 minutes in the evening checking out a few of these replys? I going to the pub, I'm too tired when I get in from work, the dogs not well etc..etc.
So perhaps I was not too unkind...!
The trade plan and entry points: I dont think I was clear enough on this point especially for beginners.
I hope this helps to clarify and get you thinking.
The first conclusion I draw from this market is, it is reasonably stable judging by the trading range of 3.40 to 'about' 3.70 also 3.45 seems to be fairly solid support as the matched money stops abruptly and does not gradually taper down.
Entry point A would seem to be a very 'safe' place to place a lay order, we could just sit and wait.
Entry point B was my entry in this market, as you can see from the chart on the left the market has touched 3.75, turned down and already bounced off 3.55 once, so that was our signal for an entry lay order. Now the thing to focus on is money following our order on top off the £224 waiting to be matched because others will probably be doing and thinking as we are. It is difficult from a screen shot to appreciate the actual price action ticker, we all so some money to 'sit on', the £2970 at 3.50. We have some options now;
1. We could if we are content to take one tick profit, place our counter trade at 3.60 in readyness for our exit. We should also be hovering around 3.55 to either pull the order or scratch by backing at 3.55 then pull our scalp back order at 3.60 if we feel the market is going to push through our order.
2.If we are looking for more than a one tick scalp, we should be looking to our next possible exit point, probably at 3.70. Why 3.70, because the market has already been there previously!
Do not forget to be aware what is happening in the market as a whole by keeping one eye on the market overview.
Got you thinking?.........................Hope so!
Cheers
RT
Saturday, 14 January 2012
BETDAQ-Saturday
I had high hopes for Saturday on BETDAQ............. I was, to be totally honest, slightly disappointed with the volume traded. I did expect more for a Saturday. I did manage a reasonable profit on the day.
Lady luck did play her part though! ( Or the balance of probabilities, distribution of random events, whatever!)I do not claim that any great skill went into achieving my results, as the two best trades of the day went in my favour almost immediately after my entry order was matched! There is some catching up still to be done by BETDAQ I feel. I certainly intend to keep my account funded and active.
I am in correspondence with Betfair over their site failures yesterday, I don't hold much in the way of optimism!
P&L £17.37
RT......signing off
I am in correspondence with Betfair over their site failures yesterday, I don't hold much in the way of optimism!
P&L £17.37
RT......signing off
PERFECT PRACTICE
DATE: 14/01/2012 TRADE PLAN: PERFECT PRACTICE
I think that covers most elements of the trade plan. I'll do my best to expand and improve it as time allows.
Do give it a try.
RT
- MARKETS: UK & Ireland Horse racing- pre-race. (Both BETDAQ & BETFAIR)
- To qualify each event must have a minimum volume of £150,000 at 3 minutes before post/off time. ( Betdaq users may have to use some discretion here).
- We will be observing the general market overview from at least 5 minutes out from start time.( We will be looking for market behaviour, trends, etc give it a good old looking at! Remember one up, one down-sometimes! Steamers and Drifters).
- We will only trade from 3 minutes out to as near to 30 seconds out as possible.( The thinking behind this as follows: to start to build a routine, a sort of sportsman's muscle memory(google) and the painful start of self discipline because you will notice market movers and you will want to join in! But this time forces you to start and think about your entry point into the market. You would be surprised how many cock ups I avoided by adopting this technique, avoiding getting in too soon).
- Trade selection: Usually the highest volume/ fav.
- Entry criteria: Depending on market movement whether we Back or Lay first ( One important point to bear in mind here, it is a good idea to notice whether you have a tendency to back first or lay first? Just have a think about that one!)
- Entry point 1: Ask or take a price? Again depending on how fast the market is moving. A safer option is to ask for a price by joining the money already waiting for a match. (Don't forget if you feel the market is not going in your anticipated direction, just pull the order)
- Entry point 2:Consider previous market movement, that is use the FULL MARKET DEPTH feature to identify previous highs and lows etc. (This is to help us to avoid 'laying at the top' and 'backing at the bottom' etc. Can we identify a trading range, If the market is trending either up or down don't just jump in, look for the pull backs for your entry point, no market travels in a straight lines)
- Trade management: Watch the price action, as EVERY TRADE STARTS AS A SCALP UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE, ( This is not easy but with some perfect practice it can be done, so as our price is matched our focus switches to the opposite side of the ladder. If by watching the price action/ticker we feel the trade is not going as planned, we scratch immediately, if the trade does go in our favour we follow with our mouse poised ready to take any profit offered to us. If the trade jumps against us again we scratch at the best price available, immediately. The whole point of this exercise is to keep in control and protect our capital! This element of the trade is really difficult to explain effectively as screen time plays an enormous part.)(Scratch at net zero as often as you like)
- Exit point 1: If we incur TWO successive ONE tick losses, we close out and red up across the book.Then move onto the next race, not a problem!( The reasoning here is to stop us from re-entering the market to 'win' back our loss and building up an even bigger loss!)
- Exit point 2: The scratch trade described earlier
- Exit point 3: As dictated by our reading of the price action
- Exit point 4: The timer has reached our cut off point of 30 seconds from the off time.( Obviously the thinking here is to remove the temptation of an in-play 'gamble') Close out and move on- Capital intact!
- Capital and staking: Use what ever you are most comfortable with, enough said.
I think that covers most elements of the trade plan. I'll do my best to expand and improve it as time allows.
Do give it a try.
RT
Grasshopper
Just noticed this whilst having breakfast emphasises my previous point perfectly:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/mild-winter-brings-no-moral-lesson-for-lazy-grasshopper-201201134764/
The grasshopper was a trader! A discrete trader at that ; )
With a smile, see ya soon.
RT
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/mild-winter-brings-no-moral-lesson-for-lazy-grasshopper-201201134764/
The grasshopper was a trader! A discrete trader at that ; )
With a smile, see ya soon.
RT
PRACTICE MAKES PERFECT?
Yeah, yeah we know that much already, everybody knows practice makes perfect it is something our parents use to drum into us, is it not? Well in RTs opinion they are wrong! It is PERFECT practice that makes us perfect! If we are struggling and getting things wrong what is the point of practising this activity, none, because all we are doing is reinforcing this negative behaviour. See my comprehensive school education was not totally wasted.
Just wait one moment and let me get something of my chest (English saying) and at the same time make one MASSIVE point to you and see if it has any impact at all. It started with this:
http://www.dailyraider.com/index.php?id=12031
What do you think? What ever you think you must have an opinion, it may already be on these lines anyway, but if it is not then you should start to embrace these principles and embed them into your daily thinking, because from the beginning of time this principle has applied, it WILL continue to apply.
The rich and successful are rich and successful because they know and understand the rules!
The glimmer of light is the rule book is here, open and available to us, all we have to do is apply them.
Everybody loves a trading quote don't they? Mark Douglas says this..., Dr Alexander Elder says that......we have all seen and read them. Well Rouge Trader says this, its from the most unlikely source with regard to trading. Its from the excellent and imaginative
J.K.ROWLING.....'YOU COULD BE GREAT, YOU KNOW, ITS ALL HERE INSIDE YOU HEAD!' ( Harry Potter and the Philosophers Stone.)
I hope you are starting to catch onto my Philosophy of trading and of life. Persevere, be Optimistic and take Control.There are fantastic opportunities available to use, grasp them.
We trade because of the 'Freedom', not possible I'm sorry to tell you! What we need are a set of rigid and clearly defined rules to trade by, and let me add clearly UNDERSTOOD RULES!.....
A TRADE PLAN.
To follow.
RT
Just wait one moment and let me get something of my chest (English saying) and at the same time make one MASSIVE point to you and see if it has any impact at all. It started with this:
http://www.dailyraider.com/index.php?id=12031
What do you think? What ever you think you must have an opinion, it may already be on these lines anyway, but if it is not then you should start to embrace these principles and embed them into your daily thinking, because from the beginning of time this principle has applied, it WILL continue to apply.
The rich and successful are rich and successful because they know and understand the rules!
The glimmer of light is the rule book is here, open and available to us, all we have to do is apply them.
Everybody loves a trading quote don't they? Mark Douglas says this..., Dr Alexander Elder says that......we have all seen and read them. Well Rouge Trader says this, its from the most unlikely source with regard to trading. Its from the excellent and imaginative
J.K.ROWLING.....'YOU COULD BE GREAT, YOU KNOW, ITS ALL HERE INSIDE YOU HEAD!' ( Harry Potter and the Philosophers Stone.)
I hope you are starting to catch onto my Philosophy of trading and of life. Persevere, be Optimistic and take Control.There are fantastic opportunities available to use, grasp them.
We trade because of the 'Freedom', not possible I'm sorry to tell you! What we need are a set of rigid and clearly defined rules to trade by, and let me add clearly UNDERSTOOD RULES!.....
A TRADE PLAN.
To follow.
RT
Friday, 13 January 2012
BETDAQ!
Downloaded the toy for BETDAQ, I know I said I wouldn't, but I did! I took it out for a spin around the evening cards at Woolyhampton and Dundalk! Well its hard to keep a good man down. First thoughts, not a lot of liquidity, but tradeable....just. Tomorrows racing should be better, as a comparison the 18:40 at Woolyhampton had about 650K matched at post time while the same race on Betdaq had about 90K. Now I know they work their matched volume out differently but you can see what I mean.
Only one minor criticisms of the toy and that is no full market depth which I find very useful.
Off to lick my wounds a while longer, see you tomorrow.
RT
Bet-un-fair P&L -£58.47 Account bal £0.00 Betdaq P&L £8.95 Bal £108.95
Only one minor criticisms of the toy and that is no full market depth which I find very useful.
Off to lick my wounds a while longer, see you tomorrow.
RT
Bet-un-fair P&L -£58.47 Account bal £0.00 Betdaq P&L £8.95 Bal £108.95
ACHING, SORE & STEAMROLLERED!
But apart from that I'm great! No really, I'm not too bad. NO trading though. Always best to stop if you have a set back or even an unexpected win! After all there are people a lot worse off.
Was it my fault? Well no I honestly do not think it was, the opening lay order was matched at 12.58 and just after post time,seconds, as I was looking to trade out, SUSPENSION! Not just suspension but CRASH! So no chance to do anything at all! Live and learn.
I dont think that I will rest until I have tried BETDAQ, nothing ventured nothing gained!
See you later
RT
Was it my fault? Well no I honestly do not think it was, the opening lay order was matched at 12.58 and just after post time,seconds, as I was looking to trade out, SUSPENSION! Not just suspension but CRASH! So no chance to do anything at all! Live and learn.
I dont think that I will rest until I have tried BETDAQ, nothing ventured nothing gained!
See you later
RT
BET-UN-FAIR
After a long conversation the Bet-un-fairs customer services a very nervy and hesitant employee said 'Computer says NOooooo!'
Painful !
TWATS!
Off to cool down or just get BLADDERED!
RT
Painful !
TWATS!
Off to cool down or just get BLADDERED!
RT
Update.........
Managed to log into Betfair still showing a liability or exposure of -£139.79 but none of my previous trades have been settled!
I have just opened an account with BETDAQ.
RT
I have just opened an account with BETDAQ.
RT
OH DEAR WHAT A CALAMITY!
SHIT, BASTARD, BOLLOCKS!!!!!!!!!!........ RT's angry!......with BETFAIR who else!
I'm sitting here here on a dig red! Betfair or Betfuck crashed as I had a matched lay order and was waiting for the back order to get matched! Finger nails chewed to the bone. I'm waiting to find out what is going on!
RT
I'm sitting here here on a dig red! Betfair or Betfuck crashed as I had a matched lay order and was waiting for the back order to get matched! Finger nails chewed to the bone. I'm waiting to find out what is going on!
RT
Preparation......
First things first: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16538773 What does this say to you? What It says to RT is this, 'Get your ass in gear, get the trading sorted so non of this crap has any impact on me!'
Back to business.
The Trade plan mentioned in yesterdays post, well we need to cut down on and simplify the amount of information we take in, this is to make the trading operation as simple as possible. So we go from this:
To this ;)
This is if one screen is available, in fact it may be preferable to concentrate on just one screen for the time being. It should be self explanatory.
Catch you this evening...Bye
RT
Back to business.
The Trade plan mentioned in yesterdays post, well we need to cut down on and simplify the amount of information we take in, this is to make the trading operation as simple as possible. So we go from this:
Catch you this evening...Bye
RT
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Part free.................
Read on a while you'll catch my drift. Well it must be quite obvious what action we must take, what immediate action we must take! We must close the trade and accept the tiny loss of just 0.47p and move on. Easy really is it not? Well no, I do not think it is actually. Judging by what I have read in various forums and personal experience it is quite, no,very difficult at times to accept even the smallest of losses, the human mind tends to give us all or nothing choices at times like this i.e when we are under pressure. Well what do we do about this situation?.......... Pause........
Let me take a backward step for a moment. A while ago I reading 'THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS' by Jack Schwager and in the chapter on Willian Eckhardt he was asked the question ' What advice would you give to losing traders?'
The reply was 'Identify what you are doing wrong, then stop doing it'.
Magic, fuck me a million times over!!!! I just love quotes like that. Simple and to the point!
So, RT being the clever bastard he is!??!? Went and devised a plan, A TRADE PLAN! To avoid getting us into that horrible situation in the first place. It will have to form a post of its own because the various aspects need to be reasoned and explained, but there is a cost, well there always is isnt there? It is the new updated, much improved and totally revamped version that I making available to you for the princely sum of ...........Fuck all! No, the costs involve alot of mental resistance and discomfort for you!
That particular trade by the way I did manage to exit at scratch as the market did move in my favour as I was saving the screen shot.......
Catch ya soon
RT
P&L £9.89 BAL= £172.48
Let me take a backward step for a moment. A while ago I reading 'THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS' by Jack Schwager and in the chapter on Willian Eckhardt he was asked the question ' What advice would you give to losing traders?'
The reply was 'Identify what you are doing wrong, then stop doing it'.
Magic, fuck me a million times over!!!! I just love quotes like that. Simple and to the point!
So, RT being the clever bastard he is!??!? Went and devised a plan, A TRADE PLAN! To avoid getting us into that horrible situation in the first place. It will have to form a post of its own because the various aspects need to be reasoned and explained, but there is a cost, well there always is isnt there? It is the new updated, much improved and totally revamped version that I making available to you for the princely sum of ...........Fuck all! No, the costs involve alot of mental resistance and discomfort for you!
That particular trade by the way I did manage to exit at scratch as the market did move in my favour as I was saving the screen shot.......
Catch ya soon
RT
P&L £9.89 BAL= £172.48
Do you see it,,,,,?
Well do you? You've no idea how hard it is to get screen shot depicting what I'd got in my mind! I think you get the picture though.
Well, this in RT's opinion is the key to pre-race trading! Get this right and you are on your way. So lets look a little further, what are we being offered, whats on the table or to be more accurate what is the market offering us?
TWO and only TWO alternatives:
1. A guaranteed loss of just 0.47p
or
2. A potential loss of £110.00
Forget those green figures they are NOT part of the deal! Are you starting to understand the reasoning?
Back soon
RT
Well, this in RT's opinion is the key to pre-race trading! Get this right and you are on your way. So lets look a little further, what are we being offered, whats on the table or to be more accurate what is the market offering us?
TWO and only TWO alternatives:
1. A guaranteed loss of just 0.47p
or
2. A potential loss of £110.00
Forget those green figures they are NOT part of the deal! Are you starting to understand the reasoning?
Back soon
RT
A picture is worth a .................
........................... 1000 words!
Look familiar?
Just spend a few moments looking at this image! NO DON'T LOOK, SEE!
RT
Look familiar?
Just spend a few moments looking at this image! NO DON'T LOOK, SEE!
RT
Wednesday, 11 January 2012
A worrying thought!
I've just read back through my previous posts and you know I'm starting to sound like an expert! Well dont be fooled, I am a losing trader, reformed and well on the road to recovery but a losing trader non the the less!
There it is cards on the table, ass cheeks well and truly bared.
What I have learnt in my two and a bit years of trading and fifty five years experience of life coupled with six CSEs is that trading is basically quite simple! Bet you didn't know that. Well not matter how well it gets dressed up when we enter a trade it can only do ONE of TWO things, go UP or go DOWN. There are some markets where we know exactly in which direction the market will go! Football O/Us for example. So one of my strategies is to take money as and when the market offers it to me! Talking football what can totally balls everything up is a goal! So strategies should be built around taking advantage of a goal OR avoiding a goal.
Avoiding a goal was the plan tonight, as the market ,correctly was predicting under 2.5 goals.
'Take from it what you will'
'my principal activity is to tease those who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously' Nassin Nicholas Taleb.
P&L £19.95 Bal £162.59
There it is cards on the table, ass cheeks well and truly bared.
What I have learnt in my two and a bit years of trading and fifty five years experience of life coupled with six CSEs is that trading is basically quite simple! Bet you didn't know that. Well not matter how well it gets dressed up when we enter a trade it can only do ONE of TWO things, go UP or go DOWN. There are some markets where we know exactly in which direction the market will go! Football O/Us for example. So one of my strategies is to take money as and when the market offers it to me! Talking football what can totally balls everything up is a goal! So strategies should be built around taking advantage of a goal OR avoiding a goal.
Avoiding a goal was the plan tonight, as the market ,correctly was predicting under 2.5 goals.
'my principal activity is to tease those who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously' Nassin Nicholas Taleb.
P&L £19.95 Bal £162.59
UP,UP & AWAY!
I think this must rank as one of my best ever swing trades! I'm pretty pleased (you smug bastard!). Well you do have to be in it to win it. Perseverance is not a bad quality in a trader is it?
The 'Geeks toy ' working at its best! Great stuff, back to the footie.
See you later
RT
The 'Geeks toy ' working at its best! Great stuff, back to the footie.
See you later
RT
Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Market overview
I managed to skive off a bit early today and trade the last three races. I grabbed a screenshot or two which may be of interest.
Notice how they are almost a mirror image of each other, you often see this, but look what happens a few minutes later.
One of the 'outsiders' starts a long downward & sustained move, this puts pressure on the top two in the market which have to drift out to maintain an even book percentage. Its always worth having a look at the full market on occasions, (Reading the market) It pays dividends! So lets start seeing, not just looking!
P&L £12.21 Bal £142.64
One of the 'outsiders' starts a long downward & sustained move, this puts pressure on the top two in the market which have to drift out to maintain an even book percentage. Its always worth having a look at the full market on occasions, (Reading the market) It pays dividends! So lets start seeing, not just looking!
P&L £12.21 Bal £142.64
Why we trade: yet more wisdom from RT!!!!
As if we needed more incentive to trade, just have a look at this:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16474998
Do you get the impression we are in the hands of people who know what they are doing? Well RTs survey says fu#k you! I'm all for looking after number 1!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16473548
The leader of the oppo young Ed is going to make sure we get a fair deal! Sure you are Ed!
Now if perhaps people like this were in charge things might just get done..... but?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNEp7q30JCw&feature=related
If you do get the time Robert Peston's book 'Who actually runs Britain is well worth a read.
Inevitably no matter which way the dice get rolled there is only one certainty the masses will get the shafting!
OK I'll get to the point, we have a wonderful opportunity to take control of our own destiny here, even if only by providing a small second income. So invest a little time and effort, it will pay off!
See ya
RT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16474998
Do you get the impression we are in the hands of people who know what they are doing? Well RTs survey says fu#k you! I'm all for looking after number 1!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16473548
The leader of the oppo young Ed is going to make sure we get a fair deal! Sure you are Ed!
Now if perhaps people like this were in charge things might just get done..... but?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNEp7q30JCw&feature=related
If you do get the time Robert Peston's book 'Who actually runs Britain is well worth a read.
Inevitably no matter which way the dice get rolled there is only one certainty the masses will get the shafting!
OK I'll get to the point, we have a wonderful opportunity to take control of our own destiny here, even if only by providing a small second income. So invest a little time and effort, it will pay off!
See ya
RT
The EDGE !
The elusive edge! Often talked about in trading forums and chat rooms in whispers and hushed tones! Its the most closely guarded secret of the professionals.(Quick glance over shoulder!)
Well sorry to disappoint you in RT opinion an EDGE is nothing more than having confidence in a winning strategy! That's it. Simples, in a nutshell ring a publisher and write a book on it!
Lets just think what we have achieved in three days trading, started with £100 on Saturday by Monday night we had that original investment into £130.43. A gain of 30.43% just by applying a few basic and readily available strategies and techniques. No rocket science involved anywhere, honest.
Just spend a few moments thinking about it.
Catch you later
RT
Well sorry to disappoint you in RT opinion an EDGE is nothing more than having confidence in a winning strategy! That's it. Simples, in a nutshell ring a publisher and write a book on it!
Lets just think what we have achieved in three days trading, started with £100 on Saturday by Monday night we had that original investment into £130.43. A gain of 30.43% just by applying a few basic and readily available strategies and techniques. No rocket science involved anywhere, honest.
Just spend a few moments thinking about it.
Catch you later
RT
Monday, 9 January 2012
Arsenal - Leeds
I managed to get a screenshot to illustrate the point I was attempting to make in last nights post regarding trading 'blind' i.e. without live pictures or even radio commentary to help plan and execute our trades.
The black arrows indicate the market direction as this is an attacking phase within the under 2.5 goals market, the market has temporarily reversed in anticipation of a goal. The long term trend is down,, but as you can see there is a gap for us to exploit! We lay first at 1.88, then immediately back at 1.89. We lay first because if a goal were to be scored and any of our stake matched the market would suspend then reopen higher, leaving use nicely in profit.
Oh by the way who wrote the match script? It just had to happen did'nt it Thierry Henry getting the winner!
Good trading, see you soon
RT
P&L £13.10 Bal £130.43
The black arrows indicate the market direction as this is an attacking phase within the under 2.5 goals market, the market has temporarily reversed in anticipation of a goal. The long term trend is down,, but as you can see there is a gap for us to exploit! We lay first at 1.88, then immediately back at 1.89. We lay first because if a goal were to be scored and any of our stake matched the market would suspend then reopen higher, leaving use nicely in profit.
Oh by the way who wrote the match script? It just had to happen did'nt it Thierry Henry getting the winner!
RT
P&L £13.10 Bal £130.43
Rewind!
Lets just go back to an earlier post, Why do we trade? Well, lets just go back a fraction further, what are our financial circumstances, are we under any sort of financial pressure and do we see trading as an escape from our financial pressures? If any of this applies to you please tread cautiously, as this situation will seriously affect your mindset and will most probably lead to loses.
Going back to last nights post about trading football blind, I'll try to grad a screen shot to explain exactly what I mean. I dont want come over as a smart arse, I want this blog to be thought provoking, amusing and informative.
Anyway just enough time to get the kettle on before the Arsenal - Leeds match.
See ya soon
RT
Going back to last nights post about trading football blind, I'll try to grad a screen shot to explain exactly what I mean. I dont want come over as a smart arse, I want this blog to be thought provoking, amusing and informative.
Anyway just enough time to get the kettle on before the Arsenal - Leeds match.
See ya soon
RT
Back to work!
Its been a great xmas and new year, but nothing lasts forever! Back to the old grind of making the boss richer,not for much longer though.
Tonights football will be my only trading opportunity. Arsenal v Leeds. You would have fancy Arsenal at home, but you never know, cup match, team selections all come into play. Leeds did pull off a 0-1 away win last year at Man U. The market is currently giving Leeds just a 9% chance of a victory (Odds of 11.0) and generally favouring over 2.5 goals. Team selection will have to be taken into consideration also, especially now because of the extra influence of the African nations cup!
Anyway bye for now,
RT
Tonights football will be my only trading opportunity. Arsenal v Leeds. You would have fancy Arsenal at home, but you never know, cup match, team selections all come into play. Leeds did pull off a 0-1 away win last year at Man U. The market is currently giving Leeds just a 9% chance of a victory (Odds of 11.0) and generally favouring over 2.5 goals. Team selection will have to be taken into consideration also, especially now because of the extra influence of the African nations cup!
Anyway bye for now,
RT
Sunday, 8 January 2012
Update
Update: Nearly bed time.
Espanyol v Barcelona
I had intended entering the under 2.5s at about 20 mins, but good old Cesc Fabregas popped one in at about 16mis. Smart! I waited awhile then entered expecting a second goal. No second goal! Exit for a loss of -£5.25. (The entry time determined by Barcelona average first goal time give or take a bit)
Bol#8!ks.
I'm trading blind no pictures or commentary so I scalp a tick or two here and there in the under 2.5s and 3.5s
gradually reducing the 'red' figure watching the flow of the market, laying first always!
You know its amazing what you can learn from just watching the price action alone.
Time for bed
RT
P&L11.68 Bal £117.33
Espanyol v Barcelona
I had intended entering the under 2.5s at about 20 mins, but good old Cesc Fabregas popped one in at about 16mis. Smart! I waited awhile then entered expecting a second goal. No second goal! Exit for a loss of -£5.25. (The entry time determined by Barcelona average first goal time give or take a bit)
Bol#8!ks.
I'm trading blind no pictures or commentary so I scalp a tick or two here and there in the under 2.5s and 3.5s
gradually reducing the 'red' figure watching the flow of the market, laying first always!
You know its amazing what you can learn from just watching the price action alone.
Time for bed
RT
P&L11.68 Bal £117.33
6:30pm
Todays racing was a struggle for me! I dont know why, perhaps it was just one of those days. I did make a decent profit overall so I dont know quite why I felt it was struggle? Perhaps I have put myself under some extra pressure by writing this blog! Expectations ?
In an earlier post I wrote about why we trade, well just for one moment lets just look what we have achieved with starting capital of just £100. In two days our capital has increased by £16.33 or 16.33% how long would it have taken to achieve similar gains in a bank account? Years. I did not feel either that my money was at any great risk. So lets keep things in perspective and under control.
Barcelona are playing later, mmm, tempting!
Catch you later
RT
P&L £10.68 Bal £116.33
Todays racing was a struggle for me! I dont know why, perhaps it was just one of those days. I did make a decent profit overall so I dont know quite why I felt it was struggle? Perhaps I have put myself under some extra pressure by writing this blog! Expectations ?
In an earlier post I wrote about why we trade, well just for one moment lets just look what we have achieved with starting capital of just £100. In two days our capital has increased by £16.33 or 16.33% how long would it have taken to achieve similar gains in a bank account? Years. I did not feel either that my money was at any great risk. So lets keep things in perspective and under control.
Barcelona are playing later, mmm, tempting!
Catch you later
RT
P&L £10.68 Bal £116.33
Yawn is that the time!
Its early I know but come on get your head into gear, more coffee, the real stuff not that instant crap!
Thats better.
Trading software?
You'll need some, and you can guess from the banner above I personally use THE GEEKS TOY, its the ferrari, porsche and lamborghini of trading software, its the bollocks! OH and its FREE. learn how to use, get to know it, make it your friend!
A bit of background information may be of use at this point, who exactly is the Geek? Well legend has it, he lives in a castle somewhere in Geekland. Deep underground, in a dimly lit old dungeon, the Geek, surrounded by the latest in Amstrad & ZX Spectrum technology , casts his spells and waves his magic wand! When you have learned to use the magic of the Toy send the Geek a few coppers so he can put a bit more coal on the fire this winter! He deserves adequate recompense for all the work put into developing the Toy. There is also an excellent forum where you can get all the latest on the Honey of the day and latest jokes! Brilliant.
To even and fair I would also recommend Bet angel, although not free at about £150 for the year (£2.88 a week) this still represents excellent value given all the features, again there is also great back up and forum facilities where advice may be sought. You should also make it part of your daily routine to check Peter Webbs daily blog, http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/
Do not underestimate the value of the free advice that is available on these forums.
Cheers for now, Yawn!
RT
Thats better.
Trading software?
You'll need some, and you can guess from the banner above I personally use THE GEEKS TOY, its the ferrari, porsche and lamborghini of trading software, its the bollocks! OH and its FREE. learn how to use, get to know it, make it your friend!
A bit of background information may be of use at this point, who exactly is the Geek? Well legend has it, he lives in a castle somewhere in Geekland. Deep underground, in a dimly lit old dungeon, the Geek, surrounded by the latest in Amstrad & ZX Spectrum technology , casts his spells and waves his magic wand! When you have learned to use the magic of the Toy send the Geek a few coppers so he can put a bit more coal on the fire this winter! He deserves adequate recompense for all the work put into developing the Toy. There is also an excellent forum where you can get all the latest on the Honey of the day and latest jokes! Brilliant.
To even and fair I would also recommend Bet angel, although not free at about £150 for the year (£2.88 a week) this still represents excellent value given all the features, again there is also great back up and forum facilities where advice may be sought. You should also make it part of your daily routine to check Peter Webbs daily blog, http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/
Do not underestimate the value of the free advice that is available on these forums.
Cheers for now, Yawn!
RT
Saturday, 7 January 2012
Day 1 plus abit!
9:20pm
Who said there would be no trading today? Well just happened to notice Real Madrid v Granada.I'd been keen to try out a strategy in the O/U 2.5 goals market. The average time of the first goal scored in Real Madrids last 25 matches is about 23 minutes. So I opened a trade in the under market,perhaps a bit early but the first goal was duly at 19 minutes. I perhaps mistakenly greened up for a profit almost straight away. The next goal came at 22 minutes pushing the price further out into even greater profit ! live and learn eh! Well the curry was due and the wine breathing!
Cheers
RT.
P&L £5.65 Bal £ 105.65
Who said there would be no trading today? Well just happened to notice Real Madrid v Granada.I'd been keen to try out a strategy in the O/U 2.5 goals market. The average time of the first goal scored in Real Madrids last 25 matches is about 23 minutes. So I opened a trade in the under market,perhaps a bit early but the first goal was duly at 19 minutes. I perhaps mistakenly greened up for a profit almost straight away. The next goal came at 22 minutes pushing the price further out into even greater profit ! live and learn eh! Well the curry was due and the wine breathing!
Cheers
RT.
P&L £5.65 Bal £ 105.65
Day 1
5pm.
My first day trading for this blog. Happy new year.
My main focus for my my trading activity will be pre-race horse racing, football and tennis.
No trading ! It had been one of those days, dashing about all over the place.
When I did eventually get back home I was just too stressed to trade effectively. Time to catch up on the FA cup.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Why do we trade?
1.Money
2.More money
3.The freedom
4.Escapism
5.The thrill, the buzz!
6.The answer to all of our problems!
The trading trap, the paradox!
I'll post some thoughts myself in the coming weeks.
See you later,
RT.
My first day trading for this blog. Happy new year.
My main focus for my my trading activity will be pre-race horse racing, football and tennis.
No trading ! It had been one of those days, dashing about all over the place.
When I did eventually get back home I was just too stressed to trade effectively. Time to catch up on the FA cup.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Why do we trade?
1.Money
2.More money
3.The freedom
4.Escapism
5.The thrill, the buzz!
6.The answer to all of our problems!
The trading trap, the paradox!
I'll post some thoughts myself in the coming weeks.
See you later,
RT.
NEW TRADING BLOG: Starting with £100 capital
Let me introduce myself, my name is ROGUE TRADER. I am starting this blog to chart my betfair trading progress.
I intend to start off with £100.
I will try to make daily posts to monitor my progress.
See you for now RT.
I intend to start off with £100.
I will try to make daily posts to monitor my progress.
See you for now RT.
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